In 2018 it was a rare 'peaceful year' that only happened twice in the past 100 years

by The Prophet

In 2018 which became less than two weeks less, it is expected to be "the year when no coup occurred in the world". In fact, the year when coup did not occur historically is very rare, democracy takes root in countries where autocratic politics is taking place due to the declining global coup d'etre and the market is open It seems that the trend has been confirmed.

No coups occurred in 2018. Will next year be so stable?

The last coup occurred in Zimbabwe in November 2017. By the soldiers' uprising and President Mugabe under house arrest, the dictatorship that lasted 37 years ended. At the end of this coup, the coup did not occur until December 2018, and the period without coup continued for about 1 year. However, the coup did not occur throughout the year in the past 100 years, the second time since 2007, it seems to be very unusual.

In the CoupCast project , the risk of coup occurrence is predicted on a monthly basis by utilizing past data and machine learning. According to CoupCast, "the risk that a coup occurs at least once a year" has been decreasing since 2000, and in 2018 the risk of coup occurrence on a global scale has reached its lowest record of 88%.

Although political stability has a geopolitical bias, the data analysis of CoupCast points out that the possibility of a coup d'etat in the region where coup risk has been high until now is greatly reduced.

In the 20th century Latin America was the center of the coup, and many Latin American leaders were executed by the coup d'etat. However, in Latin America 142 coups occurred since 1950, but since 2000 there are only 5 cases.

Also, Asia is also a region where coups are relatively likely to occur, but among the 62 coups occurring in the world over the past 18 years, only six cases in Asia have been confirmed, the risk of the coup drastically declined I know that there is.

In past studies, leaders often open up a path to democracy to increase legitimacy as coup d'etat succeeds, economic growth is easy to realize, whereas an authoritarian leader sets up a regime when a coup dies fail I know that it tends to rebuild. The coup d'etat that occurred in South Korea in 1961 is a typical example, following the process that the military regime was established after the coup success, the rapid economic growth occurred, and returned to democracy decades later.

In recent years, as the coup d'etat has decreased, in addition to the fact that the success of the coup increased the number of countries where democracy came to root, as the end of the Cold War extended the interdependence relationship between Asian countries and the world's superpowers, democracy There are also indications that the formation has progressed, economic growth has been brought about, and this has led to stability in the region.

However, in Latin America and Asia where the risk of the coup drastically declined, Africa still has a high risk. In Africa, countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia and other countries have achieved great economic development in the past decades, but the fact that wealth is unevenly distributed and that poverty rate is low only despite economic growth is "unequal Growth "state. The economically poor situation becomes an uneasy factor, such as demonstration activities, that there is a possibility of ultimately causing it.

In addition, it is pointed out that there is a danger that a coup daughter will cause an unstable political situation. Since 2007, out of the 12 countries in which coups occurred in Africa, coups occurred several times in half and a vicious circle occurred due to the state of confusion accompanying the coup and birthplace that caused another coup d'etat It is said that.

However, Africa is also expected to overcome the coup generation cycle as in Latin America which overcomes the history of coup daggerism in 30 years and Asia which cleared in a shorter period of time. CoupCast calculates that the probability of a coup occurring at least once in Africa has declined from 69% in 2018 to 55.5% in 2019.

in Note, Posted by darkhorse_log